11 green questions: will 2011 have the answers?

“This year is definitely all about getting real,” says Lynne Sullivan, director of consultancy Sustainable by Design, referring to the sense of pragmatism that’s now setting the agenda. Isabel McAllister, associate director at cost consultant Cyril Sweett, agrees: “The wackier green stuff is being stripped out, with much more of an emphasis on financial pay-back and real environmental gains.”

“It certainly won’t be a year of stepping on the gas,” concludes environmental consultant David Strong, of David Strong Consulting. “Clients generally aren’t going that extra mile to obtain BREEAM excellent or outstanding — and few are going beyond code level 3 in the private housing sector.”

Meanwhile, government cuts and market conditions naturally point to a greater emphasis on refurbishment rather than new build. That’s especially true in the light of the new “energy tax”, or the revamped Carbon Reduction Commitment. This was switched in the Comprehensive Spending Review from being cost neutral to adding about 8% a year to energy bills of the 5,000 major property owners affected, such as supermarket and hotel chains, local authorities and large NHS Trusts.

And, if we are to meet national carbon emission reduction targets of 80% by 2050, the biggest gains will have to come from refurbishment of the 99% of buildings that already exist. The forthcoming Green Deal — due to make 26 million homes more energy efficient — is the most exciting development on the industry’s horizon.

So it’s not surprising that refurbishment, and recommendations on how to make it happen, were prominent themes in last November’s report from Paul Morrell, the chief construction adviser. Marketing and PR consultant Liz Male sums it up: “Paul Morrell has sent a strong signal: new build is no longer where it’s at.”

2. What difference will Paul Morrell’s report make?

Morrell and his Innovation and Growth Team (IGT) looked at the construction industry’s role in delivering the 80% reduction of carbon emissions by 2050. The report — Low Carbon Construction — talks of a 40-year programme to transform the built environment and a bonanza for SMEs.

The fact that the report contains more than 60 recommendations underlines what a complicated and multi-faceted task it remains. Like others before it, the report calls for greater collaboration within the industry, but also recognises that new rules and regulation, and firm leadership from government, will be needed to respond to the industry’s fragmentation and the scale of the task.

But this would go against the Coalition’s hands-off approach and localist ideology. “To get things done they will need to bring in new legislation, but will they want that?” asks architect Rab Bennetts of Bennetts Associates.

For John Alker, director of policy and communications at the UK Green Building Council, the acid test of the report is: “Will anyone remember it in 12 months?” We’ll have a better idea of the answer in March, when the government’s response to Morrell’s report is due.

3. Where are we with the zero carbon definition?

Labour’s 2006 goal to ensure that all new homes were zero carbon by 2016 aimed high. But the policy, and the accompanying 2007 Code for Sustainable Homes, have become a real quagmire, and progress is slow. In 2009/10 only 435 houses were built above code level 3, of which 290 were at code level 4.

Critically, after four years, the industry is still waiting for the definition of zero carbon. The original idea that homes could be 100% zero carbon — ie balancing all their energy needs with on-site generation — has proved prohibitively expensive. Instead, the industry is pursuing a twin-track approach. Directly reducing emissions from energy uses in the home is referred to as “carbon compliance”, and includes improving the energy performance of the building fabric and generating low or zero-carbon energy on site or via local networks directly connected to the property.

The second option is meeting a percentage of the home’s energy needs through low or zero carbon energy generation away from the site, potentially through a community energy fund. This off-site approach is known as “allowable solutions”.

At the end of 2010, the Zero Carbon Hub — set up by the industry and government to thrash out how zero carbon new-build homes will be delivered — submitted its recommendation for consultation. It has been applauded for recommending that “carbon compliance” be measured under new-style fabric efficiency targets, likely to be better understood by the wider world than percentage reductions in energy use compared to the 2006 Building Regulations, the previous indicator. 

So the industry is being asked for its opinion on targets of between 8kg and 12kg of CO₂/m²/year for houses; and between 10kg and 14kg CO2/m2/year for low-rise apartments. (That’s equivalent to levels of between 50% and 64% carbon reduction against Part L 2006 for homes; and 44% and 57% for low-rise apartments. Achieving 44% is the equivalent to the standards proposed for Part L 2013).

Clare Wildfire, sustainability masterplanning director at Mott MacDonald Fulcrum, says: “Until we know how much energy will be required on site it’s difficult to plan schemes going forward on mixed developments.”

4. What else is changing in the housebuilding sector?

In November, housing minister Grant Shapps also announced other changes to the Code for Sustainable Homes, essentially to make it less onerous and bring it in line with the Building Regulations. He also reduced the compliance burden for developers building homes on publicly-owned land by scrapping the HCA’s proposed Core Standards, which included building at code level 4 from 2011. For the moment, they only have to comply with code level 3, a similar energy efficiency standard to Part L 2010.

As Design for Homes director David Birkbeck comments: “The Code aspirations unravelled in 2010 — now the emphasis is on trying to build a larger number of homes to a higher energy efficiency standard rather than a few to a super-high standard.”

However, some of the Code’s demands that have been dropped, including the requirement for site waste management plans, are still covered by other legislation.

Shapps has also proposed a new Local Standards Framework — a kind of basket of standards that local councils will be able to demand of developers, underpinned by the Building Regulations. But the idea is already causing concern among housebuilders, fearing that it will drive up costs as different housing standards are demanded across different districts.

5. Will the German PassivHaus standard continue to gather momentum?

Homes built to PassivHaus standards produce savings on space heating of 80-90% compared to those built to Part L 2006. That’s equivalent to code level 4, so it’s not surprising it is seen as a bit of saviour for meeting the UK’s energy reduction targets.

One fan is Chris Huhne, secretary of state for energy and climate change, who said he “would like to see every new home in the UK reach the standard”. Jonathon Porritt, the founding director of Forum for the Future, has called on the UK construction industry to urgently embrace PassivHaus to meet the government’s 2016 zero-carbon target.

“I think zero carbon targets for new homes will be rethought and we will see a greater focus on German PassivHaus standards in the UK. It’s practical and pragmatic,” says independent consultant David Strong.

But PassivHaus homes are technically challenging to build, and we don’t necessarily have the skills to build them on a large scale. Other criticisms are that the methodology needs further adaptation for the UK climate, its payback period is too long and it is all about reducing space heating. “Families who are large users of hot water can still run up large energy bills,” says Sustainable by Design’s Lynne Sullivan.

6. Is the Green Deal worth getting excited about? 

We will have to wait until late 2011 to see exactly what shape the Green Deal takes. So far it’s little more than an aspiration to refurbish 26 million homes over the next 20 years — more than 1.2 million a year. The Green Deal is likely to involve energy companies and other providers paying up front for eco-upgrades to homes, with householders paying them back via their fuel bills. If they move house, the next owners will carry on with the repayments. There’s also talk of extending the Green Deal to commercial premises. 

The big questions are: how much of the cake will go to SMEs; will installation work be dominated by the big retailers such as Tesco and M&S (see CM November/December, p5); and what exactly will be the role of the energy companies? “We’re going to see discussions in all sorts of directions over the next 12 months,” says Rob Lambe, managing director of Rethinking at Willmott Dixon.

While the IGT report points to a bonanza for SMEs, architect Rab Bennetts believes it needs larger operations to take control to ensure uniform quality assurance. Ironically, the contractor that was probably the farthest advanced in offering “Green Deal” solutions to homeowners was Rok.

The other key issue is whether the government will introduce a “stick” mechanism to get households to take up the Green Deal if persuasion doesn’t work. Morrell’s report urges the government to “introduce a suite of measures including regulation, fiscal incentives and penalties to ensure success”. The UKGBC echoes this call, talking of “fiscal incentives that link rates of stamp duty or council tax to the level of energy efficiency”.

7. What technology are we going to be seeing more of?

Micro generation technology will continue to come into its own in 2011, thanks to feed-in tariffs (FITs). Households using solar PV will receive 41.3p for every unit of electricity they generate and use themselves, in addition to 3p per unit if they sell it back to the grid.

For anyone signing up in 2011, these payments are guaranteed for 25 years, but they are set to be reviewed and changed in 2012, or sooner if there is a PV stampede, as happened in Spain. John Connaughton, head of management consultancy at Davis Langdon Aecom, says: “Feed-in tariffs have completely altered the finance. PVs are now quite attractive for small investors. They are also spreading into the commercial sector.” Kier is one contractor that is set to capitalise on this trend, buying PV specialist Beco at the end of 2010.

The government is now planning a new tariff to encourage a similar take-up of micro renewable heat generation technology. Called the Renewable Heat Incentive, there is still much detail to be decided, such as the value of the tariff and the technologies that will be eligible.

“When this is defined it will end up deciding what becomes the most popular technologies,” says Clare Wildfire at Mott MacDonald Fulcrum.

8. Do green buildings perform as well as 

they are designed to?

“The biggest issue for 2011 is the operational performance of green buildings — people are paying more to build greener buildings and they want to know how they are working,” says Isabel McAllister of Cyril Sweett. The industry does have monitoring initiatives such as Carbon Buzz, set up jointly between the RIBA and the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, where in-use energy data is collected and shared anonymously. But how specific buildings actually perform tends to be shrouded in secrecy.

Last year a team from Leeds Metropolitan University studied the performance of a low-carbon housing scheme in York, developed by the Joseph Rowntree Housing Trust. They found that the actual performance of the properties was not as good as intended. Heat loss was 54% higher than designed for, the solar systems to provide hot water suffered numerous operational problems, and the ground source heat pumps under-performed.

Malcom Bell, professor of surveying and sustainable housing at Leeds Metropolitan, said: “Although the government has set ambitious targets … to achieve zero carbon new housing by 2016, there is considerable concern that the policy will be undermined because regulatory standards will not be achieved on the ground.”

Morrell’s report recommends that “government and the industry should routinely embed the principles of ‘Soft Landings’ into their contracts and processes”. Soft Landings, an initiative from consultant BSRIA and the Usable Buildings Trust, ensures that designers and builders stay involved after completion, helping the client to understand how to control and best use their building.

Meanwhile, one radical solution under consideration is to demand that developers sign up to having random checks on performance as part of the Building Regulations. “I understand the regulations minister Andrew Stunell is very keen on that,” says Lynne Sullivan.

9. Will the Green Investment Bank have money to invest?

The government has confirmed it is setting up a bank to fund difficult energy efficiency and infrastructure projects, but that’s as far as the details go.

John Alker of the Green Building Council asks the key question: “Will it be able to act like a bank raising finance on the open market to support renewables and energy efficiency programmes, or be much more scaled down, a fund that’s fine only for a few projects here and there?”

The latest signs are not promising. In a recent interview, climate change secretary Chris Huhne suggested that the bank would not take on liabilities, as this would add to the bloated national debt.

A spokesman at the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills says:

“The bank has been allocated £1bn [in the Comprehensive Spending Review] but that kicks in in 2013/2014. Before that we’re looking to asset sales to raise significant funding. The plan is to get the bank up and running by September 2012 and run it as an independent entity free of political whims.”

10. I’m a construction manager — will I notice anything different on site?

In recent years, the emphasis on site has been on reducing the volume of waste sent to landfill. But now the challenge is to find ways of reducing residual waste and cutting back waste in the design stages.

Wates, which achieves zero waste to landfill on nearly half of its sites, has joined forces with more than 30 local social enterprises, donating unused paint, bricks and plasterboard to community building projects, according 

to sustainability manager Rachel Wooliscroft. She says that checking where materials are sourced from, their recycled content and the embodied energy agenda, will be the big challenges facing contractors. “One of our targets is, by 2015, to draw up a chain of custody for all timber materials on site,” she says.

And Wooliscroft adds that construction managers can expect to do more carbon reporting, including the energy use on site, site cabins and for transport.

Robert Lambe at Willmott Dixon agrees: “Driving out energy use on site is going to be more and more important.” He is chair of the environmental subgroup of the UK Contractors Group, which is looking at the environmental impact of construction activities.

Meanwhile, WRAP, the government-funded Waste Resources and Action Programme, will publish a performance review of the 500 firms that signed up to its “Halving Waste to Landfill” initiative, and what the impact has been on the industry.

11. What will be the buzzwords of 2011?

Embodied energy is one, as cuts in operational energy mean that embodied energy increases as a proportion of the overall energy profile. “One key question for 2011 is how do we reduce embodied carbon more systematically, and not just in the exemplar projects like Ropemaker Place?” says Mike Watson, head of construction at WRAP.

But while we’re still waiting for a standard assessment methodology — being addressed at EU level — Watson believes that comprehensive project-wide footprinting is too advanced and time-consuming for many projects.

“The issue is whether we can get a much larger range of projects to look at their ‘quick wins’ — the top 5 changes to reduce embodied carbon.”

Watch out for the return of biodiversity, as the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is set to publish a White Paper in the spring that includes a proposal for “biodiversity off-setting”. This could be a levy that developers pay into a local fund for replacing open spaces on a larger scale, as opposed to individual schemes doing their own bit of landscaping, driven by a concern that we are not keeping pace with the loss of habitat and biodiversity.

Air quality is another issue, arising when buildings are built to high insulation and low air leakage standards. David Birkbeck, director of Design for Homes, says this has come to the fore in Sweden, which surveyed 3,000 newly-built homes fitted with mechanical ventilation. Of these, 300 households found them impossible to live in. “It’s like a new form of sick building syndrome,” he says. Again, Morrell’s report has highlighted this and recommends indoor air quality standards.