We’ve had positive NHBC registration figures – those out today signal 40% more in the pipeline than this time last year. The De Montfort report on bank lending in the property market shows the market is on the turn.
And this week’s announcement that Chinese investors are ploughing £1bn into the Royal Docks is the latest in a string of mega schemes to get the green light. But perhaps none demonstrates the vital signs more vividly than the frenzy of activity recruitment consultants are reporting.
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Admittedly, at this stage it’s more anecdotal than statistical. The most recent official figures show employment and vacancies still heading southwards, as is output. But we’re talking here about new work. And there is definitely an emerging trend of senior people moving firms, more vacancies on the web and social media sites, and those recruitment consultants chirruping away.
It hardly needs stating but we are, of course, starting from a low base. The job market has been virtually stagnant for five years. However, a mixture of more new projects in the pipeline, particularly housing, combined with a greater confidence among employees to move jobs creating churn, means that more firms are hiring at last to cope with this preconstruction work for commercial and housing. Architects are staffing up, temps are being converted to permanent, and heaven forbid, there’s even talk already of skills shortages among those with three to five years’ experience in disciplines such as quantity surveying, estimating and project management.
That’s not to say the upturn in activity is benefitting everyone. It’s still not looking great if you’re over a certain age, live in the north or have been out of work or freelancing for the past five years, unfair as that may be. Nor can it be claimed that we’re home and dry on the economy. A report from the CITB’s Construction Skills Network in January said that the next few years will see just slow growth and output and will not match its 2007 output peak until 2022 and employment will continue to fall until 2016.
And the full impact of public sector cuts hasn’t arrived yet – particularly benefit changes. Who knows how that might supress the economy or what course will be set in the comprehensive spending review announced on 26 June. Then there’s the euro situation, which continues to bubble under…
For employees, the emergence from hibernation of an active jobs market might bring that long-awaited pay rise as employers try to keep hold of those with itchy feet, bored in their job or fed up that their career has been on hold for the last few years. But, conversely, it’s not so good for employers, who have to cope with rising overheads while prices and fees remain keen. Upturns notoriously bring their own choppy waters to navigate. Still, let’s be bullish rather than bearish for the moment, shall we, proceed with caution, but savour some good news.
